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After reading Strategy1st's excellent prediction piece, I've decided to make my own call on this season's outcome: Malcolm win's against anyone, and if Malcolm's no longer around, then I'll go with Mike Skupin.

That said, there's no way I could be disappointed in a win by any of these Final Four. While I wasn't too worried about Malcolm and Denise completely getting wiped out on Matsing, there was still a chance that one or both of them could have gotten booted after they were doled out to Kalabaw and Tandang.  And Lisa and Skupin were initially targets for boots early on.

It's been posited that Skupin has been extremely unliked, especially by the original members of Tandang, so that would seem to give the two women a chance to jump into the winner's seat if Malcolm doesn't win Final Immunity, but I pick Skupin in such a scenario because if such a blindside came about, it would represent a betrayal by Denise of her strongest ally and personal code of keeping 'worthy' players around. Tandang has the most members on the jury, but I'm not sure all of their votes will automatically go to Lisa over Skupin. (Abi will obviously not be voting for Denise, although she has repeatedly said that neither Lisa or Mike can beat Malcolm and/or Denise.) I do like that fact that Lisa obviously was open to making moves to get ahead in the game, but the fact that NONE of those moves came to fruition will count against her. And Lisa's moves didn't involve creating new alliances from among the minority players, which is why jury members end up there. (It was Malcolm who initiated the F4 deal with Skupin and Lisa, and Penner who unwittingly sunk his own and Lisa's best chance to argue that they made at least one move that rocked the game.) Denise has played a 'Sophie' type game, and her seeming resistance to deviate from the script might play against her. Even with her 'don't rock the boat' gameplay, Malcolm has, it seems to me, managed to let Denise take credit for twisting the knife in the backs of the other bootees on their way to the jury, while maintaining an air of overall likeability.

If Malcolm is a JT avatar, and Denise channels Sophie, then perhaps Skupin can be seen as an embodiment of Coach? He's been edited to show a credible path to the winner's circle, and yet as Strategy1st has pointed out, no one seems afraid to take him along to the finals at all. It might qualify as cruel and unusual punishment for TPTB to pull the rug out from under the feet of a returnee two season's in a row, but there is definitely a chance it could happen. (In which case, I'll go along with Lisa pulling off an upset, since she has definitely established some good relationships with many of the jury members.)

If Malcolm is not in the mix, then I think the vote could be a lot closer, but I still think Skupin might pull it out. But my cynical heart says: Malcolm will win Final Immunity and waltz into the victory. What I'd hate to see would be for Malcolm lose and guilt Denise into voting for a fire-making tie-breaker, where Denise could argue that she didn't 'betray' her strongest ally, and then have Malcolm beat out Lisa for the finals. The outcome would be the same, only it'd be even more frustrating for Lisa to go out that way. I'm assuming that Skupin would have the necklace in such a scenario, but if Denise has it, she and Malcolm might still decide to keep Skupin as a more obvious goat? But in that case, Skupin would probably toss Lisa under the bus, knowing that he himself would get her vote, but only cementing his negative impression with the jury, in my opinion. Therefore, in the event of a final two, I'll go ahead and call the win for a woman, either Denise or Lisa (again, assuming Malcolm has already been shown the door). I don't see Denise ever being able to throw Malcolm under the bus, but Malcolm might very well do so to her. If Malcolm takes both Mike and Lisa to the end, then the vote might not be as great in Malcolm's favour, but he'd still win. (But there is a slight incentive for Malcolm to keep Denise in the game as well, as that simply guarantees him another gullible, I mean guilt-able, vote to get to Final Two, should it be needed.)

I'm posting very late in the game, as it were, but I hope to hear from other forum members, pre-Finale, if possible! This has been a predictable season, but for the most part an enjoyable one, I think.

I agree with you that Penner is trying to get under the radar by toning down the gameplay as much as he dares.  I'm worried that he won't be able to recover from that though...  I think he should have just gone along with the finals deal.  I suppose we'll see!

I do think that Abi is gone though.  Yes, on paper it's a great plan to take the goat to the finals, but who are you going to betray in your alliance in order to take Abi?  If anybody raises the option of keeping her around for another week, everybody else is going to suspect them of wanting to take her to the end (and thus costing another player their position at Final Tribal.

The only way it might work is because we have at least two dyads, so if they're all assuming an F3 (and it might be an F2, going by episodes left), one dyad could agree that Abi would be their third, and both partners would be happy.

But Malcolm and Denise have a final four deal with Skupin and Lisa, and a webclip of Carter's proves that they've discussed endgame scenarios with him too.  For all we know, they've talked up a finals deal with Penner as well.  If either of them tries to save Abi, that will raise a red flag for Skupin, Lisa and Carter.  If Skupin or Lisa try to save her, that will raise a red flag for Malcolm and Denise.  If Penner or Carter try to save her, that's just going to lock the final four together.

Perhaps that's the real reason Denise was able to talk about only taking the worthy players to the end.  She was using the Good vs Evil narrative, but she also knew that she and Malcolm could not use Abi as a finals goat.  So she drew a line in the sand that using Abi as a goat was not acceptable.

Anyway, that's my prediction... Abi will go home.  The only way out of it is if Carter or Penner try to save her, which might just draw the target to them.

I have to say I agree Mr. E.  I like the "strategy" of Penner also.  The only problem I have is that learning from previous seasons he seems like he is doing good and then opens his mouth and says something stupid or does something stupid that puts the target back on him.  I'm waiting for that to happen.  As for Abi, as much as we want her gone she is a perfect goat to take to F3 as I don't think she will get any votes because no one likes her.  As for Malcolm, at this point he is almost as invincible as Kim was last season.  Very likable, not too overbearing at the challenges, and seems to have people that listen to his every last word like he is a God.  I can see him in F3 and possibly winning if someone doesn't take him down soon.

I was quite shocked when Jonathon Penner said that he wasn't going to make any plans until the three dyads are at six. I wonder if even Skupin bought it? Was it simply a ploy to deflect Skupin from asking straight up for an alliance that Penner felt he couldn't make in good conscience? (Perhaps because Penner had already made an F4/3 promise to someone else?) Or could Penner's strategy at this point simply to play as transparent a game as possible, in order to appear UNscheming and UNcompetitive? Whatever he is doing, Penner has seemingly managed to remove the target that he has been carrying around on his back since the merge, and conveniently for him, Pete and Abi have also raised the flag on the threat Malcolm poses to everyone else's chances of winning.

At this point, the only reason to vote off Abi would be to preserve some pretense of Good vs. Evil among the remaining dyads, and those who don't go along would show themselves to be Evil as well, perhaps (which is a Coach-type stratagem, and can blow up in your face, as we have seen). If the goal sooner or later becomes to start eliminating the biggest threats to win, then the next boots would have to be Malcolm, Penner, and Skupin, in more or less that order, but I don't see how that can possibly come about given the assumed loyalties that each target has within their own dyad. There have been rumblings from Denise at TC about continuing the game with "worthy" (I don't know if that was her word) competitors, which again is a way of maintaining control/discipline among the inner circle, but at this point, we haven't been shown any alliance much beyond the dyads. Presumably, making a move against any of the "Good" players before taking out Abi would therefore qualify the one making such a move as Evil too, and therefore the next target. True, Malcolm has tried to rope in Lisa and Skupin, but I'm not sure Lisa is completely sold on the idea. I'm certain that she sees Malcolm as a huge threat. The real question is, whether all the other players have come to the conclusion that they wouldn't mind being beaten by Malcolm, and therefore are willing to agree to take/go with him to the end?

Even if Penner's strategy doesn't end up getting him into the final, it is a new gambit in the Survivor playbook (at least to me), and he deserves credit for crafting it and keeping himself in the game thus far with it. It's a nice twist on the Diaz-Twine "Anybody but me" strategy. Jonathon is playing the game with everybody, so how can you boot him from the game if he is so willing to help your game? I like it.

 

The prognostications for Penner's possible path to the finals jibe completely with my own, Strategy1st, but I fear that Malcolm and Denise will decide to throw in with Pete and Abi in an alliance of HII dyads against everyone else, and either Skupin or Penner are doomed tonight. I also don't really hold out much hope for Carter's loyalty to Penner. Carter seems more attracted to the younger alpha males Malcolm and Pete. Oh, sure, he likes Penner and Skupin well enough, but I think he secretly wants to grow up to be Malcolm or Pete!

It's a war of dyads versus floaters, and each dyad only wants one floater to take along with them. I can see all the dyads booting Penner and then fighting over the spoils: Carter.

Oddly enough, I think Penner might be in the best position to win right now.  He's got a really tough road ahead of him, but I think you're right that he and Skupin and Lisa will forge an alliance together.  Yes, she voted against him this week, but I think she was aware that he wouldn't go home and even if she wasn't, those two are generally mature enough about the game to move past that.

The big thing about Penner is that everybody sees him as the most dangerous player out there.  So many players have said that now.  It's not about the returner's stigma anymore (well, it partly is, since he's getting more attention than the first timers).  It's possible that they might make a last ditch alliance to try and get him out, but that would require Malcolm & Denise and Pete & Abi to work together next episode, and I don't think that will happen.

On the other hand, if Abi goes home next, there is an outside chance that Malcolm, Denise, Carter and Pete will rally together against Penner.  Malcolm and Pete do seem to get on really well, even if Pete hasn't got as good a read on Malcolm's soul as he'd like!  But my guess is that Penner's pulled Carter in with him now.

I don't like making predictions considering how crazy this season has been, but from a theory standpoint, if Penner has a deal with Skupin and Lisa and a separate deal with Carter, he should have a clearer path to the end than any other player.  And considering the target that's been on his back and the high respect which all the players left hold him in... he's got the best chance of winning the thing.

Right now anyway.  Come Wednesday night, Abi could end up as the frontrunner.  Who knows with this group!

You know that's going to come up at the reunion.  I'll be very curious to see how those three players handle it then... RC was pretty bitter about Pete and Abi in her interviews.  She's apparently forgiven Artis, which makes sense considering how much time they'll have spent together at Ponderosa (though she hasn't forgiven him in the videos on CBS website this week).

I just hope that the editors are taking note of the fact that their main eye candy girls are gone... and yet the season is still one of the strongest yet.  Now stop casting women because of how they look in a bikini, damnit!

Jeff addressed this recently on Rob Has A Podcast.  His explanation is that he tries to be the voice of the audience.  He's trying to say the stuff that we're yelling at our televisions.

I think that's actually a fair enough thing to do.  After all, his job is host not referee.  I don't know whether he's becoming more blatant than in past seasons, but he's been doing this as long as I've been watching (since Exile Island) and players should be aware of that.  I would consider Jeff's comments part of the situation, and you should be incorporating him into your gameplan as much as anybody else.  I've definitely heard him commenting on people messing up during a challenge before.  As March said, one of the things Penner is known for is answering Jeff back during challenges, and that was twelve seasons ago!

Jeff also pointed out that he says a lot of stuff, and the editing has a tendency to filter out everything that isn't relevant to the story they're telling, which can make him seem more biased towards or against a player than is reality.

One thing he revealed that was kind of interesting was that he slipped up during a challenge this season and said "Jeff Kent" instead of "Jeff".  He said he was freaking out afterwards and asking if any of the contestants had brought it up, but as far as they could tell from the footage, nobody noticed.

[Reward Challenge]

After last week's mind-blowing Tribal Council on "Survivor: Philippines", it's no wonder Lisa Whelchel was a woman on the verge of a nervous breakdown afterward at camp.

But instead of thanking her for scrambling to save them, her Tandang tribemates basically ignored her -- while she was instead consoled by the casualties of her scheming. Malcolm immediately told her he had no hard feelings, and she thanked him for his "grace and mercy."

But Penner, playing Dr. Lucy in a Peanuts-style psychiatry booth, counseled Lisa that her need to please people derives from the "toll and cost" of her "extraordinary youth" as a child actor.

Reward Challenge

The nine remaining Castaways divided into two teams, mirroring their alliances because they picked their members. The last one picked, Abi, had to sit out and wasn't eligible for the reward: a feast by local villagers. (You're welcome, villagers!)

The challenge called for each Castaway to crawl through a muddy obstacle course and dig up bags of balls to shoot in a basket. Thanks to Penner's brilliant strategy of retrieving all the bags at once himself, his team took a huge lead and won easily.

The Have-Nots

Back at camp, Abi instead insulted Lisa, calling her "gullible and naive" -- while insisting they need to be strong and vote out Penner.

Even Artis (he speaks again!) recognizes that Abi "needs to shut up before she screws everything all up."

Immunity Challenge

First things first: fashion props to Jeff Probst, who looks fine in that black shirt.

Instead of spending hours in the hot sun, this challenge only requires the contestants to maneuver six balls into their designated spots while balancing a large paddle. With Pete his only real challenger, Skupin won his very first Individual Immunity -- two wins in a row for the vets!

Camp Scrambling

Maybe because they too have noticed him speaking during this episode (always a reality-show tell), Denise and Malcolm agree to vote out Artis in Tribal Council.

Then Penner gets to work on Lisa, breaking the fourth wall and asking her and Skupin to "do the right thing and tell a better story" for the viewers. (Thanks, buddy!) Why stay loyal to those bullies?

Tribal Council

After Lisa points out that she experienced more "grace" from the people she hurt than the people she was trying to protect, Jeff notices Abi's sourpuss -- she really is more venomous than those cobras we keep seeing in B-roll footage.

Artis speaks a third time (now we're starting to get suspicious), inaccurately pointing out that Tandang is one of the most powerful tribes in "Survivor" history -- but quickly clarifying that he knows that even he could get blindsided tonight.

Ding ding ding, we have a winner! By a vote of 5-4, Artis' torch -- not Penner's -- is snuffed. While he signs off with grace and dignity, Abi is spitting silent venom at everyone around her. The biggest surprise of the night is that Skupin, not Lisa, flipped. Guess she really doesn't care about entertaining the audience after all.

Source: Zap2it