F2: Coach vs. JT, FTW!

[Mr. E of Yonago, Japan]

It's my day off, I'm on my second cup of Golden Monkey, and writing in the Debbie thread got me thinking about the road to the F2, and what it could look like. I have tried to avoid extreme posts, more or less successfully, I think, since my early days here on the boards. (My favorite one was "Flicka's Dream", from Cook Island days.) For those who prefer hard facts and stats, you might want to forgo what is sure to be an excruciating melange of dreams, hopes, and what ifs....

 '>  

First off, let's forget about the previews for this week's episode, where TPTB show us Erinn scrambling to apologize, and supposedly on the chopping block. (Why? Because this rambling daydream doesn't depend on reality at all!!! Bwahh-ha-ha-ha!)

We've all noticed how the cast this year really seems to 'get it' regarding Survivor as a game, and not an approximation or mirror of 'real life'. One result of this has been the lack of melodrama, and a much slower, mellower, and less exciting series arc. It has also led to the creation of one of the most rational seeming juries ever, in my experience of Survivor. This gives all of the remaining players that much better a chance of winning in the finals, and there are still permutations remaining that provide each of them with a realistic, or at least hopeful, shot at the million dollars. This is definitely a change from most seasons, in which too many players have been blind to their actual chances in a final showdown, or else have been blackballed from the outset by vindictive, venomous jury members.

As it now stands, JT is a lock, probably with 100% of the votes if he makes it to the finals. Given this fact, he must be eliminated for any of the others to have a chance. Does JT know this? You bet he does! He and Stephen have alluded to the fact that JT is carrying the biggest target of all on his back, while the other players have been ignoring him all this time. (Which begs the question, 'Why?' My guess would be poor strategy combined with the fear of being caught scheming against a powerhouse player. Perhaps this is what causes Erinn to be a target.)

So if it is obvious that JT must go, why do I see him in the F2? Again, this is just a dream scenario, not a prediction, but here is how I imagine it could be pulled off:

JT realizes that the only way he can avoid a blindside at F5 without the IIC necklace around his neck is to have two players' votes who are absolutely on his side. Nominally, those would belong to Stephen and Taj. JT knows that Taj feels more loyalty to Stephen than to himself, so he probably wouldn't take much comfort in that. Therefore, the only way for Jalapao to prove their loyalty to each other is for Taj and Stephen both to give the HII to JT if he doesn't win the IC necklace. If they refuse, then JT knows he must re-align with Coach and Erinn against Taj and Stephen.

If JT has the necklace (and he would appear due, although remember that Coach came in third in the totem pole endurance challenge), then Erinn would appear to be the obvious boot. She has been playing a solo game throughout, and there is no way at this point to accurately gauge her trustworthiness or reliably to predict her moves. Eliminate the wildcard, then. As an added incentive, remember how Danielle slipped through to the F2 because of a challenge where her small size and weight gave her an advantage. Taj has shown that she is the strongest woman in the game, but in a brute strength endurance challenge, she could possibly beat Stephen, but never JT.  

Of course, a lot will depend upon whether Stephen gives the HII back to Taj to play or not. If he does, his gamelife could well be forfeit. JT, holding the necklace, would then be free to join with Coach and Erinn, either of whom would be targeted by Taj/Stephen, and get rid of the only other likely competitor in the game. Although it is obvious to us at home that JT cannot be beaten, in country he might be more paranoid than we are, and by setting down the only other strategic threat to his control in the game early, he gives Stephen a chance to mellow out, and avoids an awkward last minute backstab and the jury recriminations that go along with it.

If Stephen goes, then it gets a little sticky, as there will be a gender fault line to deal with, and Coach and JT could be tripped up by a rigged IIC that favors the women (or at least gives them an equal chance). However, it seems more likely that TPTB are looking forward to keeping Coach around to the end, and JT as well, so I predict they would still make it through to F2.

However, if Stephen keeps the HII and plays it for himself, then of course it will be up to JT to convince Stephen that Erinn should be the target, not Coach, if only to keep JT comfortable in the face of the obvious Taj/Stephen connection. Taj wouldn't like it, of course, but she's only one vote, and JT and Stephen will simply get Taj and Erinn thinking that Coach is the true target. Then it's on to the 'Enter the Dragon' scenario, with the Warrior Alliance in full effect, and Taj on the outside for F4.  The men can avoid a messy falling out, and at F3 JT has a 2 out of 3 chance of getting to the Final, as Coach's word is 'bank', for JT at any rate.

There you have it: Dragon against Dragonslayer in the F2.

I just hope the jury keeps a lid on the mockery. I didn't mind the wearing of the feathers, but the draping of the coats over the shoulders of Brendan and Sierra went too far, in my opinion. I don't think Tyson joined in that bit, possibly simply because he didn't have a jacket, but his expression didn't seem amused. It's a fine line between poking fun and bullying. You have to be very aware of not taking it to the point of actually hurting someone's feelings. Does Coach 'deserve' it? Perhaps. But as the Bard says,

Use every man after his desert,
and who should scape whipping?
                                                                  --Hamlet II,ii

Naturally, if JT doesn't have the IC necklace, the permutations that lead to him surviving the F5 vote are quite convoluted, well beyond the HII call-out that I propose above. If all the other players are playing the game to provide themselves with the best possible outcome for themselves, then of course JT is toast! But how many times have we witnessed a failure of insight/strategy at just such a point? So, we shall just have to wait and see. At least JT's boot would lead to a much more scrambled and chaotic fight to the finish...  Bwahh-ha-ha-ha!!!

 '>



Edited for grammar and spelling

[Mr. E of Yonago, Japan]

It's my day off, I'm on my second cup of Golden Monkey, and writing in the Debbie thread got me thinking about the road to the F2, and what it could look like. I have tried to avoid extreme posts, more or less successfully, I think, since my early days here on the boards. (My favorite one was "Flicka's Dream", from Cook Island days.) For those who prefer hard facts and stats, you might want to forgo what is sure to be an excruciating melange of dreams, hopes, and what ifs....

 '>  

First off, let's forget about the previews for this week's episode, where TPTB show us Erinn scrambling to apologize, and supposedly on the chopping block. (Why? Because this rambling daydream doesn't depend on reality at all!!! Bwahh-ha-ha-ha!)

We've all noticed how the cast this year really seems to 'get it' regarding Survivor as a game, and not an approximation or mirror of 'real life'. One result of this has been the lack of melodrama, and a much slower, mellower, and less exciting series arc. It has also led to the creation of one of the most rational seeming juries ever, in my experience of Survivor. This gives all of the remaining players that much better a chance of winning in the finals, and there are still permutations remaining that provide each of them with a realistic, or at least hopeful, shot at the million dollars. This is definitely a change from most seasons, in which too many players have been blind to their actual chances in a final showdown, or else have been blackballed from the outset by vindictive, venomous jury members.

As it now stands, JT is a lock, probably with 100% of the votes if he makes it to the finals. Given this fact, he must be eliminated for any of the others to have a chance. Does JT know this? You bet he does! He and Stephen have alluded to the fact that JT is carrying the biggest target of all on his back, while the other players have been ignoring him all this time. (Which begs the question, 'Why?' My guess would be poor strategy combined with the fear of being caught scheming against a powerhouse player. Perhaps this is what causes Erinn to be a target.)

So if it is obvious that JT must go, why do I see him in the F2? Again, this is just a dream scenario, not a prediction, but here is how I imagine it could be pulled off:

JT realizes that the only way he can avoid a blindside at F5 without the IIC necklace around his neck is to have two players' votes who are absolutely on his side. Nominally, those would belong to Stephen and Taj. JT knows that Taj feels more loyalty to Stephen than to himself, so he probably wouldn't take much comfort in that. Therefore, the only way for Jalapao to prove their loyalty to each other is for Taj and Stephen both to give the HII to JT if he doesn't win the IC necklace. If they refuse, then JT knows he must re-align with Coach and Erinn against Taj and Stephen.

If JT has the necklace (and he would appear due, although remember that Coach came in third in the totem pole endurance challenge), then Erinn would appear to be the obvious boot. She has been playing a solo game throughout, and there is no way at this point to accurately gauge her trustworthiness or reliably to predict her moves. Eliminate the wildcard, then. As an added incentive, remember how Danielle slipped through to the F2 because of a challenge where her small size and weight gave her an advantage. Taj has shown that she is the strongest woman in the game, but in a brute strength endurance challenge, she could possibly beat Stephen, but never JT.  

Of course, a lot will depend upon whether Stephen gives the HII back to Taj to play or not. If he does, his gamelife could well be forfeit. JT, holding the necklace, would then be free to join with Coach and Erinn, either of whom would be targeted by Taj/Stephen, and get rid of the only other likely competitor in the game. Although it is obvious to us at home that JT cannot be beaten, in country he might be more paranoid than we are, and by setting down the only other strategic threat to his control in the game early, he gives Stephen a chance to mellow out, and avoids an awkward last minute backstab and the jury recriminations that go along with it.

If Stephen goes, then it gets a little sticky, as there will be a gender fault line to deal with, and Coach and JT could be tripped up by a rigged IIC that favors the women (or at least gives them an equal chance). However, it seems more likely that TPTB are looking forward to keeping Coach around to the end, and JT as well, so I predict they would still make it through to F2.

However, if Stephen keeps the HII and plays it for himself, then of course it will be up to JT to convince Stephen that Erinn should be the target, not Coach, if only to keep JT comfortable in the face of the obvious Taj/Stephen connection. Taj wouldn't like it, of course, but she's only one vote, and JT and Stephen will simply get Taj and Erinn thinking that Coach is the true target. Then it's on to the 'Enter the Dragon' scenario, with the Warrior Alliance in full effect, and Taj on the outside for F4.  The men can avoid a messy falling out, and at F3 JT has a 2 out of 3 chance of getting to the Final, as Coach's word is 'bank', for JT at any rate.

There you have it: Dragon against Dragonslayer in the F2.

I just hope the jury keeps a lid on the mockery. I didn't mind the wearing of the feathers, but the draping of the coats over the shoulders of Brendan and Sierra went too far, in my opinion. I don't think Tyson joined in that bit, possibly simply because he didn't have a jacket, but his expression didn't seem amused. It's a fine line between poking fun and bullying. You have to be very aware of not taking it to the point of actually hurting someone's feelings. Does Coach 'deserve' it? Perhaps. But as the Bard says,

Use every man after his desert,
and who should scape whipping?
                                                                  --Hamlet II,ii

Naturally, if JT doesn't have the IC necklace, the permutations that lead to him surviving the F5 vote are quite convoluted, well beyond the HII call-out that I propose above. If all the other players are playing the game to provide themselves with the best possible outcome for themselves, then of course JT is toast! But how many times have we witnessed a failure of insight/strategy at just such a point? So, we shall just have to wait and see. At least JT's boot would lead to a much more scrambled and chaotic fight to the finish...  Bwahh-ha-ha-ha!!!

 '>



Edited for grammar and spelling

[Cestriano]

Interesting theory, Mr.E, although I'm thinking Stephen and Taj will be in the Final 2 with JT going at 3 (the final Immunity Challenge more often than not almost tends to be most difficult for people like JT, as opposed to Stephen) or 4, if it's a F3.

[Cestriano]

Interesting theory, Mr.E, although I'm thinking Stephen and Taj will be in the Final 2 with JT going at 3 (the final Immunity Challenge more often than not almost tends to be most difficult for people like JT, as opposed to Stephen) or 4, if it's a F3.

[Cestriano]

Speaking of Coach....I found THIS secret scene that took him down a few steps in my book. I mean, even by reading the explanation of what's in it...wow...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TTpM393Uck

[Cestriano]

Speaking of Coach....I found THIS secret scene that took him down a few steps in my book. I mean, even by reading the explanation of what's in it...wow...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TTpM393Uck