That's Right! The Women are smarter!

[Mr. E of Yonago, Japan]

Let us put men and women together
See which one is smarter
Some say men, but I say no
Women run the men like a puppet show

While it is still too early in the game to make a prediction at this point, it does appear that at least the woman with the most power in the game right now (i.e., Kim) is calling the shots. The problem, as I've stated elsewhere, is that being in that position makes you a pretty big target, and it could lead to an untimely collapse, but an HII in the pocket still counts for a lot.

Troy is the counter to Kim for the male side, and he is shown to have at least enough smarts to find the replacement HII, but he seems to be trying a bit too hard in the IICs, and he needs to seriously tone it down if he wants to keep from being a huge target. I think Kim is probably already wise to his threat potential, but perhaps she doesn't want to get too far out in front of the other ladies, and so will try and keep Troy in the fold while the women subtly (or not so subtly, given that Jay seems aware of the dangers in the next episode) attempt to eliminate the potential male threats, and/or potential allies for Troy. I think that Troy was probably correct in letting Jonas take the fall this week, but he has to think about the end game NOW, not two or three moves down the line. Troy needs to figure out the women's hierarchy and try and build up some kind of bonds with them in order to avoid being played by Kim and Chelsea.

But at least Troy (and Chelsea) both did some clever jury wooing with Jonas, although Chelsea's schmooze at Tribal Council may not have gone unnoticed. (Her campaign to keep Jonas around earlier may have somewhat disguised the move.) The glaring weakness in Chelsea's gameplay has been apparent early on: she only wants to keep around the 'deserving' players. This fits well into Kim's plans, though, so Chelsea is safe for quite awhile, unless the men decide to try and take out the biggest threat's second-in-command instead of going straight to the top, as often happens.

I'm curious as to whether any of those who didn't win the pizza challenge went searching for the HII themselves? The first thing I naturally thought of when Jeff made such a big deal about the secret message was that it was an HII clue. Of course, with enemy alliance members watching your every move, it could put a target on your back, but Jonas for one should have at least realized that he really needed that HII. I think the stress of having his alliance fall apart around him clouded Jonas' thinking somewhat. That, or perhaps Troy and Jay were constantly reassuring him in order to seal the blindside. Still, if the Jay and Troy had any sense, they should have tried to put the target on Michael's back, unless of course they have some kind of backdoor deal with Mike. I mean, Jonas was not a pressing threat to them at this point, since he would probably think that he was still in good with the former misfits for as long as they let him. Even if at this point you are willing to concede a gender majority (which you can probably make a case for, but not really if you are a beefy bohunkus like Jay), you need to eliminate the strongest threats to your own physical prowess. That would be Mike, which makes me wonder whether he's in a super-secret sub-alliance with Troy and Jay. It could be that the 'rooster' alliance is back on like Donkey Kong. If so, get ready to see it get taken down a notch or two very quickly. Granted, the HII gives Troy a chance to even the genders again, but that will be a very short arrangement because of Kim's HII. Troy (and Jay?) better make some moves toward the women on the bottom of the female totem, or it could end up badly for them.

The biggest mistake you can make in this game is making your move too soon, but the second biggest is going along with moves by others which further their agenda at the expense of your own. (The Dreamz Axiom.) Jonas was clearly simply treading water at this point, and the misfits were not in any kind of position to pose a threat to Troy and Jay's plan. (Nor the women's for that matter, even if Jonas was the only member of the misfits with half a brain.) Overall, yes Jonas was too well liked, and clever, to be allowed to stick around longer than necessary, but I think that this move could backfire in that it allowed two obvious physical threats to stick around much too long. (With Troy in the mix, that could be even more dangerous.) Perhaps the women have already sussed out that the three "New Salani" men are in chahoots, and therefore didn't want to make too many waves this first TC, but it seems like they will begin to get their priorities straight by next episode.

At this point, it seems likely to come down to a gender battle, which is fine by me. What I don't like is when the women at the bottom of the ladder don't seem to be (or aren't shown) making any moves to counter their own eventual boots. If things go pretty much by the numbers, then Tarzan should have cemented his position as the last man to get booted, but even without Troy's HII in play, I don't think the women have the stomach to keep him around. And if it comes down to boys versus girls, then you likely have to eliminate all the men just to guard against gender bias in the jury. (Granted, Tarzan might still be a safe goat, but he could make the case that he was playing the "Special Agent" strategy, and perhaps do an about face in front of the jury? That's a chance you could be justified in taking though!)

Gender war or not, the next threats to be eliminated should be the physical ones, not the weak or annoying ones. If Mike, Jay, and Troy are all given a pass next week, that does not bode well for the women, especially Kim.

[DanieuBleau]

Very nice Mr. E, thank you, and I love the poem!

That would be amazing if Tarzan could pull off the "Special Agent" strategy, but even if he makes it that far, and attempts it, I don't see how it would help him due to everyone knowing that he's a doctor, and finacially well off. 

The thing about Troyzan, and Chelsea wooing over Jonas for the jury, is that he's more than likely to be informed on just how sincere they were when others start to hit Ponderosa, with all of the campaigning that goes on.

But yes, Jonas was a good choice to take out since nobody really can say too many bad things about him, and of course, he fed them well. Perhaps he shouldn't have, ha! but little too late on that.

[DMC05]

Pardon me, but is Jonas even on the jury? I don't recall Jeff mentioning jury. Sorry if this is the wrong place to ask this.

I do agree that the women seem to be in power and are thinking longer-term so far. Getting rid of a male on the first round was a bit of an oversight on all the male players' parts. And ironically, the men are the ones being the most petty. That whole triad with Tarzan was just weird. He would be a good goat to bring to the finals though, provided you could put up with him another 19 days.

[DanieuBleau]

Yes, he's our first jury member DMC. I'm having problems embedding his Ponderosa videos from CBS, but here's the link to Parts 1, 2 & 3. He lost twelve pounds, but is making up for the loss at Ponderosa! 

http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/video/2216461322/survivor-one-world-ponderosa-jonas-pt-1

http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/video/2216462505/survivor-one-world-ponderosa-jonas-pt-2

http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/video/2216463356/survivor-one-world-ponderosa-jonas-pt-3

[Mr. E of Yonago, Japan]

Samson was the strongest man long ago
No one could a beat him, as we all know
Until he clash with Deliah on top of the bed
She told them all the strength was in the hair of his head

(For the record, the verses quoted are from a popular song, copyrighted by Norman Span, that has been recorded by many singers, including the Grateful Dead.)

It was recently brought to my attention that the term "bohunkus" is a derogatory term for people of eastern European extraction (specifically and originally Bohemia, according to the interweb). In the American South, it had another meaning, and I have assumed it meant a strong, muscular man without a great deal of intellect, such as the character Jethro Bodean from the sitcom The Beverly Hillbillies, which I think is where I might have picked it up. I apologize if I have offended anyone with the use of that term, and will not do so again. I realize "beefcake" may also be offputting, as well as "eye candy", but those terms are only mildly chauvinistic, are not ethnic slurs, and since I used both terms in the post, both genders can take equal umbrage. On to this weeks post!

If there was any doubt before, this week's episode should have erased it: The men are definitely being played by the women this season. Just look at how easily Troy was manipulated into going against his own best interests, and how Jay ignored a blatant warning that his supposed new alliance was working against him. I won't even get into how blind Mike was, other than to point out what any true fan already knows: If no one is coming to you to tell you how to vote, or if you are the last to be told, then clearly you are not in the loop. In his defense, Mike says he spoke individually with all the women, and was reassured by that, but he should have also tried to talk to the men more. Perhaps his initial aloofness towards the male misfit alliance is what came back to haunt him.

Not that it is a game-ending move to vote out the strongest male competition at this point. In fact, it makes a great deal of sense for both Troy and Jay. The problem with both of their games up to this point seems to be that they put too many of their eggs in the Kim/Chelsea basket, and haven't cultivated any of the outliers among the women, or their own erstwhile male allies. So foolish.

What I especially like about the new state of affairs is that it gives Christina a chance to improve her standing in the boot order if she can figure out a way to use the paranoia to her advantage. I'm still not sure she understands enough about the game to take advantage of her new opportunity, though.

The previews show the men finally getting a dose of reality, but I don't think their scrambling will amount to much. When Tarzan is actually giving you real strategic insight, it's a sure sign that you have already lost your way, and it may indeed be too late to get back on the winning track. I fear Troy will blab about his HII, and of course that information will get back to Kim, who should be able to thwart their brilliant plan. IF Troy had kept the secret to himself, then PERHAPS he might have been able to engineer a HII blindside, but I think his machinations will become apparent to the women, and they will be on the lookout for his move. Idol bluffing is always scarey, and if neither Troy nor Jay win the next IIC, they will both be extremely nervous. If one wins the necklace, then the other becomes a natural target, but then the HII play becomes too obvious. I predict that in the case of either winning the necklace, the women will simply target Tarzan or Leif, although they could try and scare Troyzan into playing his HII needlessly. It looks like the men will foolishly try and draw Kat into their alliance, but those kinds of plans rarely work. Usually the weakest players are too afraid to step out of the safety of their alliance, especially when said alliance is clearly dominant. Perhaps Jay is simply trying to bait Kat into saying that she might be open to such a move, and then he could try and sell her out to Kim as a traitor. That's a move I could applaud, if it is actually the case. Jay's warning to Kim might then be a ploy to get her to waste her own HII, but that presupposes that the men know about her possession of it. (Could Chelsea have let the cat out of the bag?) Could Jay really be trying to warn Kim? Does he trust her that much? Christina might offer some information, but we know that the women at the center of the alliance know better than to let her in on the real deal. Presumably the men are simply trying to stir up the pot among the women, but the women will probably talk amongst themselves, and suss out that it is simply mischief and misdirection.

The only misstep by Kim & Co this  week was the obvious misdirection in voting to Alicia and Christina. The clear message should be that the women on top don't trust you and want you to waste your votes, which aren't needed to further the true agenda. If those two had any strategic instincts, it should make it obvious to them that they are definitely on the bottom of the totem pole, female or not, and that they should combine their votes and attempt to swing the next TC.

Do I think that will happen? Naahhh. It would be too sweet! And I'm doubtful that Christina and Alicia have enough insight, or the ovaries, to take such a course of action. But I sure wish they did.

[Cestriano]

I should point out, Mr.E, that Jay just voted for Mike because it was pointless for him to vote otherwise and he knew that whether or not he voted for him, he was still going home. That's hardly ignoring a warning when he was shown knowing exactly what's going on.

Still though, I'm starting to dislike this season more and more, and especially like Kim less and less. Ugh.

[NightSky]

I should point out, Mr.E, that Jay just voted for Mike because it was pointless for him to vote otherwise and he knew that whether or not he voted for him, he was still going home. That's hardly ignoring a warning when he was shown knowing exactly what's going on.

Still though, I'm starting to dislike this season more and more, and especially like Kim less and less. Ugh.

I likw kim less and less also.

[Mr. E of Yonago, Japan]

I think you're right, Cestriano. Jay really had no choice in the matter, and Kim (and the brainwashed Troyzan) may even have convinced Jay that Mike was gunning for Troy anyway, so that Jay had to go along with his "true" alliance.

And as I said, this is really an ok move for Troy and Jay, as it eliminates their own biggest physical threat. Unfortunately, as Jay seemed to realize, the physical threat target is now squarely on his and Troy's back, and girl power is still an option for Kim & Co. What other options has Jay got? Not so many.

Jay's previewed warning to Kim is still a mystery to me. It sounds like an attempt to flush an HII, but again, it may be some kind of attempt to sow paranoia and distrust among the girls in order to get Kim to go along with voting out a woman. It's a little late for that, and I'd be willing to bet if Kim does decide to throw her dogs a bone in order to keep them loyal she'll simply target Christina or Alicia.

Once you hand over the decision making in your alliance to a dominant player, you'd better be on the lookout, and always, always keep an eye out for misfits and outliers who might be willing to back a coup.

I think Kim is playing a very good game right now, and I got nothing bad to say agin her. She's possibly getting a bit too overt in her power playing, and that could end badly for her, but it wouldn't upset me at all if she wins.

(If I had to pick a personal favorite, it would be Christina, but like I said elsewhere, she's got to step up and show me she gets this game first. Or maybe she has, and the editors have kept it hidden from us!)

 

[Larry Richardson]

It is really difficult  to get a member of the dominant alliance to turn on its own. I am reminded of how Jim, Keith, Dawn, and Whitney begged Sophie (S:23) to betray Coach & Co., but she saw little benefit in such a move, and was rewarded mightily in the end. In several other seasons (S:4, 5, 12, come to mind) the fringe members of the dominant alliance resisted defecting, even though their standing was marginal. Christina and Alicia have to feel vulnerable with the other women (especially Alicia, who helped vote off Monica earlier in the season), but can they be recruited by the guys to take out the female power players? I would love to see the guys try.

[Mr. E of Yonago, Japan]

I bump this thread because I think it's title complements Larry's post about tender-heartedness, not because I think it is always necessarily true. As has been demonstrated amply throughout this season, and again tonight, the women are just as susceptible to being played as any of the men. Kim has proved to be the master at that, even in the face of almost constant revelations of supposedly confidential information between all the parties. To be able to continue pulling the wool over the puppets eyes even as everyone pools every conversation with everyone else on the island is indeed impressive.

The men lost because they never formed a loyal alliance with each other. They were all solely occupied with advancing their own agendas at the expense of every other man on the island. The women were doing much the same thing, with the single exception that they knew, KNEW, that they needed to stick together in order to have a chance against the physically stronger men. In the end, as Russell managed to prove, it isn't as important to have raw numbers going into the merge as it is to have a solid and loyal core that is committed to staying loyal to each other no matter what.

What I'm beginning to worry about is whether Kim actually does have a chance to pull out a victory after watching the jury last night. There does seem to be a very bitter spirit on the jury, and they may decide to punish the person who had the most power throughout the game.

Kim is locked into a terrible fork: If she sticks with her loyal original F3, then she risks being passed over for a lesser player who gets the "snub" vote, which in this case is most likely Sabrina, as she hasn't come across as so self-righteous as Chelsea, in my opinion. If Kim goes with the misfits, she could unleash even more resentfulness in the jury, which could push the verdict even more firmly against her. It's one thing to betray male "allies" when the game has set up a boys against girls dichotomy from the beginning. It's much more difficult to argue that betraying a "sister" was the necessary or right move to make, especially to those sisters at the receiving end of the boot.

The temptation to take the weakest players is so stong, but I think it would be a mistake. With the misfits on the jury, Alicia will just look like an ungracious loser/hypocrite for berating Kim about underhanded play, and Christina has shown that she is mature enough to take her lumps in the game with grace. Neither will have any real influence on the rest of the jury members. Tarzan is also one vote I would count on to be based on the facts, and not on pure testosterone fueled rage. (Although I could be wrong about that.)

Ultimately, however Sabrina and Chelsea try to woo the jury, Kim should own her own duplicity in the game, and simply tell the jury the truth. These other two finalists were fine with letting Kim take the heat and do all the dirtiest work, and worked with her as much as they could behind the scenes, as long as they didn't have to get their hands too dirty. As such, they wanted to tag along and take the reward without doing the heavy lifting. That may just appeal to the angry males who may be eager to heap opprobrium on a strong women who has clearly outplayed, outlasted, and outwitted every other player in the game.

Of course, that only makes it more obvious that Kim should NOT be there when the final votes are tallied. I worry that Alicia may actually come to her senses in time to turn the tide at F4. In confessionals, Alicia seems to be in love with a Kim lock on F3. Maybe she has calculated that Kim will be punished severely by the jury, but that's a big risk. Still, Alicia's best chance was to take her misfits with her in front of the jury. I suppose she is hoping that Kim's power playing and the resentment it caused will carry over to both Sabrina and Chelsea, and so she can take on either one of them with confidence. Actually, that isn't a bad strategy. It worked for Sophie (once she cried for the jury), and for Diaz-Twine against Russell and Parvati. (Perhaps that really is the template for Alicia's game!)

If Alicia pulls off a win, it would be surprizing, but not undeserved. She has been shown in the most unflattering light this season, but if she really does have an accurate read on the jury, it would qualify as a great victory.

[Strategy1st]

Much as I dislike Alicia, I do think she would deserve a win if she got there.  However, I think this episode proved that she doesn't have the best read of people.  I don't think she'll know how to play the jury if she does get to F3, and I certainly don't think she'll realise she needs to boot Kim first.  But after this episode, I'm going to go ahead and say that Alicia will miss out on F3 and will possibly be the next one voted off.  I think Chelsea's reward picks, foolish as they were in some ways, have cemented Kim to that final three.

Of all the players left, I think Sabrina has the best chance of pulling an upset, because she's so good socially and knows how to talk to people just as well as Kim does... what she lacks is the Survivor savvy to finesse her approach.  Chelsea might win if the jury are bitter against Kim, but I think they'd more likely go for Sabrina, and honestly, I'd be a little annoyed if Chelsea won, because I don't feel she's outshone anybody on any level, decent a player though she's been.  Christina could steal an underdog vote, but since the animosity to her is pretty universal, I'd be surprised.