Being separated from your tribe for any extended period of time can and often does work against you. Proven in previous Survivor seasons, when tribe members venture off in a Reward Challenge the others are left back at camp to plot your demise. Misty found herself in this same situation even before she had a chance to learn the names of her fellow tribemates. Isolated on a tiny island missing those crucial moments of bonding during those first couple days of sheltering building, fire making, and searching for food and water. These are the moments that friendships and alliances are formed. Misty has a lot of catching up to do once she does rejoin her tribe. She will be looked at as a stranger invading the camp. In essence she is a stranger.
Putting yourself in her shoes, you're sitting on an island alone pondering your strategy, what options do you have? Well, the first option is obvious, find the hidden Immunity Idol. With the Idol in your back pocket , you're certainly safe if you end up visiting Tribal Council. In the least it would buy you another 3 days to get back into the game and make some allies. Finding the idol is the only sure way of advancing in the game.
The second option is to do nothing. Sit back , survive the harsh conditions of Exile Island and leave it up to chance. The odds are against you in this scenario, hoping that maybe someone back at camp is annoying the other tribemates. Annoying enough that they want to get rid of them before you. It is a long shot but it has happened before in past seasons. Remember Jamie from Guatemala? But a player willing to sit back and do nothing deserves to be voted off. This would be an “Under-the-Radar” type of player.
The third option is to do as Misty did, lie and let them believe you have the idol. This option would at least gives you a fighting chance but is extremely risky. Early on in the game it will work for a couple of reasons. For one, everyone is afraid to make any waves at this stage of the game. They don't want to be the one voted out early and have to sit at Loser Lodge for the next 30 something days. The smallest reason to vote someone off is good enough, as long as it saves themselves. Fear becomes your ally. Another reason, no one will know you lied until after the next person banished returns from Exile Island, which is 3 days later. Hopefully by that time we've made a solid alliance. Even then, the returning castaway may not make a remark concerning the Hidden Immunity Idol to contradict your lie. You would be safe for another 3 days.
But, of course it could all backfire on you. Jeff Probst might offer new clue to the whereabouts of the hidden idol in the next Reward Challenge. Jeff would expose your lie and you'd have a giant target on your back. Your days are numbered then and only the real immunity can save you.
Whether Misty found the hidden idol or not, I think her strategy was brilliant. She is playing the cards she was dealt and she decided to bluff. You have to respect her game and her guile.
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